Japan's 6,000-Meter Rare Earth Gamble Faces 2028 Test

Japan is trying to turn rare earth-rich mud from the deep Pacific seabed into a future domestic supply chain, with commercialization targeted for 2028 at the earliest, according to The Japan Times and Nippon.com. The focus is Minamitorishima, a remote island in the Tokyo village of Ogasawara, where Japan completed a test collection in February 2026.

Key developments

• Japan's government is pursuing seabed mining of critical minerals, including rare earths, around Minamitorishima as part of a broader push for economic security. The country has few domestic natural resources, making secure access to minerals a strategic concern.

• The February 2026 test collected rare earth-bearing mud from about 6,000 meters below the sea surface near the island. The reports frame the test as a step toward possible domestic rare earth production, not as proof that commercial-scale mining is already viable.

• Commercialization is being targeted in 2028 at the earliest. Both reports stress that the major unresolved challenge is balancing economic security value with economic viability, meaning Japan still has to show that deep-sea recovery can work at a practical cost.

• The seabed around Minamitorishima is believed to contain multiple critical mineral resources. Nippon.com reported that cobalt-rich crusts and manganese nodules have been found there, while mud containing heavy rare earth elements such as neodymium and dysprosium has also been confirmed. Those materials are used in electric vehicle batteries, high-performance motors, and wind power generators.

What to watch

The next key question is whether Japan can move from a successful test collection to a repeatable system that supports commercial production by 2028. The confirmed reports do not say that timeline is guaranteed, only that it is the earliest target now being discussed.

Watch for government or project updates on cost, collection volume, processing plans, and the conditions under which the mining could be judged economically viable. Until those details are clearer, the Minamitorishima project remains a high-stakes economic security bet rather than a confirmed new supply source.

Sources

• The Japan Times: Japan tackles challenges of seafloor rare earth mining, eyeing economic security
• Nippon.com: Japan Takes on Seafloor Rare Earth Mining for Domestic Production