Iran emerges damaged but still powerful as Hormuz leverage overshadows Trump victory claim

A two-week ceasefire between the United States, Israel and Iran has paused nearly six weeks of war, but it has not removed the main strategic risk in the Gulf. Reporting published on April 8 and April 9 says Iran, though badly hit by U.S. and Israeli strikes, still has effective leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has presented the outcome as a victory, yet analysts cited by Reuters and The Japan Times say Tehran remains firmly in control at home and is now in a stronger position to use the shipping route as a bargaining tool.

The stakes are global. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows, so any prolonged disruption can move energy prices, shipping costs and inflation far beyond the Middle East.

What happened

According to Reuters reporting carried by The Japan Times and other outlets, the war began on February 28, 2026, when Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched strikes meant to weaken Iran’s regional power, damage its nuclear program and increase pressure on the ruling system in Tehran. A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan was later agreed, and U.S. and Iranian officials were expected to meet in Islamabad on Friday, April 10, for formal peace talks.

But the truce has left core disputes unresolved. Analysts and Gulf officials told Reuters that Iran still retains important sources of power, including influence over regional allied groups, unresolved nuclear material concerns, and the ability to pressure shipping through Hormuz. Tehran has also reportedly sought sanctions relief, recognition of enrichment rights, compensation for war damage, and continued control over the strait as part of a broader settlement.

Earlier Reuters reporting cited by The Japan Times also said U.S. intelligence assessed that Iran was unlikely to loosen its hold on Hormuz soon, because the waterway is now one of Tehran’s strongest remaining tools against Washington.

Why this matters

This matters directly to Japan. The Japan Times reported on April 4 that crude oil routed around Hormuz is not expected to arrive in Japan until May, after regular flows through the strait stalled. The paper also reported that more than 90% of Japan’s oil imports have come from the Middle East, with most normally passing through Hormuz.

For foreigners living in Japan, the main risk is economic rather than military. A separate Japan Times report said prolonged disruption could mean higher prices for gasoline, electricity, plastics and daily necessities, and that official requests to conserve energy could become necessary if supplies do not normalize. That suggests foreign residents, students, workers and travelers in Japan could feel the impact through household costs, commuting expenses, airline prices and broader pressure on businesses that depend on imported energy.

In short, even after a damaging war, Iran appears to have preserved the one lever that can still shape daily life far from the battlefield, including in Japan.

Sources

• The Japan Times: As Trump claims victory, Iran emerges bruised but powerful with leverage over Hormuz
• Defense News / Reuters: As US claims victory, Iran emerges bruised but with leverage over Hormuz
• The Japan Times: Oil bypassing Strait of Hormuz set to arrive in Japan from May
• The Japan Times: Gasoline, diapers and drinks: Japan faces wide-ranging impact amid concern over oil