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The warming El Niño climate pattern is expected to return in mid-2026, with conditions possible as early as the May-to-July window, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The U.N. weather agency said rapidly rising sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific point to a likely shift after neutral conditions earlier this year, as reported by The Japan Times.
Key developments
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WMO said its latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update shows a clear move toward El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. The agency said sea-surface temperatures are rising quickly and that models are strongly aligned around the return of El Niño conditions, followed by further intensification.
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El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving warmer-than-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It can alter wind, pressure and rainfall patterns, often affecting heat, drought, heavy rainfall and storm risks in different regions.
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The agency said forecasts point to a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the coming three-month period. Signals are especially strong over southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe and Northern Africa, according to WMO.
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WMO noted that El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. The previous El Niño helped push global temperatures higher, with WMO and media reports linking the 2023-2024 event, combined with human-caused climate change, to record global heat.
What to watch
The main question is how strong this El Niño becomes. WMO’s climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia said there is high confidence in onset and intensification, while also noting that forecast confidence generally improves after April. That means the next updates from global climate centers will be important for narrowing the expected strength, duration and regional impacts.
National meteorological agencies will be responsible for country-level forecasts and warnings. WMO said seasonal climate outlooks are intended to support preparedness in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy and health, but regional rainfall outcomes can vary and should be tracked through official national updates.
Sources
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